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#### CHAPTER 1

#### RISK MANAGEMENT

1-1. BACKGROUND. Ground vehicle accidents cost the Army about $100,000,000 each year and significantly reduce mission capabilities. Leaders must develop techniques that will save resources. Because the Army must be prepared to operate worldwide, the training mission has become increasingly demanding and so have the risks inherent in that mission. This increase in risk requires leaders to balance mission needs with hazards involved and make wise risk decisions.

1-2. DEFINITION. Risk is the possibility of a loss combined with the probability of an occurrence. The loss can be death, injury, property damage, or mission failure. Risk management identifies risks associated with a particular operation and weighs these risks against the overall training value to be gained. The four rules of risk management are--

a. Accept no unnecessary risk.

b. Accept risks when benefits outweigh costs.

c. Make risk decisions at the right command level.

d. Manage risk in the concept and planning stages whenever possible.

1-3. RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS. The risk management process uses the following approach:

a. Identify hazards. Look for hazards in each phase of the training or operation.

b. Assess the risk. Ask these questions:

- What type of injury or equipment damage can be expected?

- What is the probability of an accident happening?

NOTE: | A low probability of an accident and an expected minor injury equals low risk. A high probability of an accident and an expected fatality equals high risk.

c. Develop risk control alternatives and make risk decisions. If you cannot eliminate the risk, then you must control it without sacrificing essential mission requirements. You can control some risks by modifying tasks, changing location, increasing supervision, wearing protective clothing, changing time of operation, and so forth. Decisions take several forms:

- Selecting from available controls.

- Modifying the mission because risk is too great.

- Accepting risk because mission benefits outweigh potential loss.

d. Implement risk control measures. You must integrate procedures to control risks into plans, orders, standing operating procedures (SOPs), and training. You must also ensure risk reduction measures are used during actual operations.

e. Supervise the operations. Make sure leaders know what controls are in place and what standards are expected. Then hold those in charge accountable for implementation. This is the point when accident prevention actually happens.

f. Evaluate the results. Include the effectiveness of risk management controls when you assess the operational results. Use lessons learned to modify future missions.

1-4. RISK ASSESSMENT ELEMENTS. There are no hard and fast rules for assessing risk. Different training tasks involve different elements that can affect training safety. However, seven elements are central to safely completing most driver training tasks:

- Soldier qualification.

- Vehicle type.

- Weather.

- Terrain.

- Supervision.

- Equipment.

- Time of day.

Using matrices that assign a risk level to each of the elements is one way to quickly appreciate the overall risks. The following matrices are examples of risk assessments for the seven elements common to driver training missions.

NOTE: | The factors are arbitrarily weighted. Modify them based on your particular mission and unit.

a. Measure soldier qualification risk by comparing the level of task difficulty to the soldier's military driving experience.

SOLDIER QUALIFICATION RISK VALUE DRIVING EXPERIENCE
TASK | LICENSED OVER 1 YEAR | LICENSED UNDER 1 YEAR | UNLICENSED
COMPLEX ROUTINE SIMPLE | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

EXAMPLE: | Unlicensed drivers learning downhill braking techniques in a PLS would be a high-risk situation requiring substantial controls.

b. Measure vehicle type risk by comparing the vehicle configuration to the locations of the training tasks.

VEHICLE TYPE RISK VALUE VEHICLE CONFIGURATION
LOCATION OF TRAINING | SMALL TRUCKS | STRAIGHT TRUCKS | COMBINATION UNITS
ROAD TRAINING AREA MOTOR POOL | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Low

EXAMPLE: Driving a PLS truck with trailer over the road would have a high-risk value.

c. Measure weather risk by comparing road conditions with visibility.

WEATHER RISK VALUE VISIBILITY
ROAD CONDITIONS | CLEAR | REDUCED | RESTRICTED
UNFAVORABLE ADEQUATE FAVORABLE | Medium Low Low | High Medium High | High High High

EXAMPLE: Driving on icy roads in fog would have a high-risk value.

d. Measure terrain risk by comparing the physical features of the land with the existing road network.

TERRAIN RISK VALUE ROAD NETWORK
TYPE OF TERRAIN | IMPROVED ROADS | SECONDARY ROADS | UNIMPROVED
MOUNTAIN DESERT/JUNGLE FLAT/ROLLING | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

EXAMPLE: Driver training conducted at Fort Bragg over trails would have a medium-risk value.

e. Measure supervision risk by comparing the level of supervision to the task location.

SUPERVISION RISK VALUE TASK LOCATION
LEVEL OF SUPERVISION | MOTOR POOL DRY | TRAINING AREA/ UNCONGESTED ROAD | OFF ROAD/ CONGESTED ROAD
NOT OBSERVING OBSERVING IN VEHICLE | High Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

EXAMPLE: | A student driving alone, but observed, in a training area would have a medium-risk value.

f. Measure equipment risk by comparing the equipment's age to the time (months) since the last semiannual service. Equipment age is defined as follows: old is 15 or more years old, average is 5 to 15 years old, and new is less than 5 years old.

EQUIPMENT RISK VALUE LAST SEMIANNUAL SERVICE
EQUIPMENT AGE | 0 TO 2 MONTHS | + 2 TO 4 MONTHS | + 4 MONTHS
OLD AVERAGE NEW | Medium Low Low | Medium Medium Low | High High Medium

EXAMPLE: A two-year-old PLS serviced three months ago would have a low-risk value.

g. Measure time-of-day risk by comparing the level of light to familiarity with the route.

TIME OF DAY RISK VALUE LIGHT LEVEL
ROUTE FAMILIARITY | DAY | DAWN/DUSK | NIGHT
NEVER DRIVEN ROUTE DRIVEN ROUTE 1-3 TIMES FAMILIAR ROUTE | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

EXAMPLE: | A driving task over a familiar route that starts during the day but ends at dusk would have a medium-risk value.

h. After assessing all the risks, determine the overall risk value. This equals the highest risk identified for any one element. Now is the time to focus on high-risk elements and develop controls to reduce risks to an acceptable level. Control examples include conducting training in a different location or at a different time of day, putting an instructor in the vehicle with the student, waiting for better weather, using a different vehicle, and so forth.

1-5. DECISION AID. The level of the decision maker should correspond to the level of the risk. The greater the risk, the more senior the final decision maker should be. This matrix is a proposed decision aid to help determine the leadership decision-making level.

DECISION AID
RISK | DECISION LEVEL
LOW MEDIUM HIGH | SENIOR INSTRUCTOR COMPANY COMMANDER BATTALION COMMANDER

a. Medium-risk training warrants complete unit command involvement. For example, a medium-risk value in the weather element category indicates the soldiers are more susceptible to cold injuries and require closer supervision or a rescheduling of training. If you cannot reduce the risk level, the company commander should decide to train or defer the mission.

b. Operations with a high-risk value warrant battalion involvement. If you cannot reduce the risk level, the battalion commander should decide to train or defer the mission.

1-6. RISK CONTROL ALTERNATIVES. The following options can help control risk:

a. Eliminate the hazard totally, if possible, or substitute a less hazardous alternative.

b. Reduce the magnitude of the hazard by changing tasks, locations, times, and so forth.

c. Modify operational procedures to minimize risk exposure consistent with mission needs.

d. Train and motivate personnel to perform to standards to avoid hazards.

1-7. SUPERVISION. Leaders must monitor the training to ensure risk control measures are followed. Never underestimate subordinates' ability to sidetrack a decision they do not understand or support. You must also monitor the impact of risk reduction procedures when they are implemented to see that they really work. This is especially true of new, untested procedures.

1-8. PAYOFFS. Risk management lets you use realistic training scenarios minimizing personnel and equipment losses while training. Risk management is consistent with mission, enemy, terrain, troops, and time available (METT-T) decision processes and can be used in battle to increase mission effectiveness.

SAMPLE RISK ASSESSMENT WORK SHEET FOR DRIVER TRAINING

TRAINING TASK: ___________________________________________

RISK LEVEL: _______________________________________________

____________1. SOLDIER QUALIFICATION

SOLDIER QUALIFICATION RISK VALUE DRIVING EXPERIENCE
TASK | LICENSED OVER 1 YEAR | LICENSED UNDER 1 YEAR | UNLICENSED
COMPLEX ROUTINE SIMPLE | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

____________2. VEHICLE TYPE

VEHICLE TYPE RISK VALUE VEHICLE CONFIGURATION
LOCATION OF TRAINING | SMALL TRUCKS | STRAIGHT TRUCKS | COMBINATION UNITS
ROAD TRAINING AREA MOTOR POOL | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Low

____________3. WEATHER

WEATHER RISK VALUE VISIBILITY
ROAD CONDITIONS | CLEAR | REDUCED | RESTRICTED
UNFAVORABLE ADEQUATE FAVORABLE | Medium Low Low | High Medium High | High High High

____________4. TERRAIN

TERRAIN RISK VALUE ROAD NETWORK
TYPE OF TERRAIN | IMPROVED ROADS | SECONDARY ROADS | UNIMPROVED
MOUNTAIN DESERT/JUNGLE FLAT/ROLLING | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

____________5. SUPERVISION

SUPERVISION RISK VALUE
TASK LOCATION
LEVEL OF SUPERVISION | MOTOR POOL DRY | TRAINING AREA/ UNCONGESTED ROAD | OFF ROAD/ CONGESTED ROAD
NOT OBSERVING OBSERVING IN VEHICLE | High Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

____________6. EQUIPMENT

EQUIPMENT RISK VALUE LAST SEMIANNUAL SERVICE
EQUIPMENT AGE | 0 TO 2 MONTHS | + 2 TO 4 MONTHS | + 4 MONTHS
OLD AVERAGE NEW | Medium Low Low | Medium Medium Low | High High Medium

____________7. TIME OF DAY

TIME OF DAY RISK VALUE LIGHT LEVEL
ROUTE FAMILIARITY | DAY | DAWN/DUSK | NIGHT
NEVER DRIVEN ROUTE DRIVEN ROUTE 1-3 TIMES FAMILIAR ROUTE | Medium Low Low | High Medium Low | High High Medium

____________OVERALL RISK LEVEL

DECISION AID
RISK | DECISION LEVEL
LOW MEDIUM HIGH | SENIOR INSTRUCTOR COMPANY COMMANDER BATTALION COMMANDER

APPROVED BY: _____________________ DATE: ____________________